He said, who said Which scathing critic of the Iraq Debacle said the following?

"The time for more U.S. troops in Iraq has passed. We do not have more troops to send and, even if we did, they would not bring a resolution to Iraq. Militaries are built to fight and win wars, not bind together failing nations. We are once again learning a very hard lesson in foreign affairs: America cannot impose a democracy on any nation -- regardless of our noble purpose."

"America finds itself in a dangerous and isolated position in the world. We are perceived as a nation at war with Muslims. Unfortunately, that perception is gaining credibility in the Muslim world and for many years will complicate America's global credibility, purpose and leadership. This debilitating and dangerous perception must be reversed as the world seeks a new geopolitical, trade and economic center that will accommodate the interests of billions of people over the next 25 years. The world will continue to require realistic, clear-headed American leadership -- not an American divine mission."

Go ahead, take a guess.  Dennis Kucinich? Ralph Nader? Howard Dean? Michael J Fox?  Nope, none of the above.  Answer: Chuck Hagel.  The REPUBLICAN senator from Nebraska.

Hagel is running for president 2008, and he has clearly staked out his claim as "most anti-Bush" Republican.  The thing that pains me is, of all the 2008 candidates from both parties, he is the only one who has truly told it like it is.  You hear that, Obama?
  ¶ 5:13 PM 0 comments

  Fotos Check out TMN's Mexico, a series of beautiful photographs by Martin Parr.   ¶ 12:45 PM 0 comments

  It's official (and obvious) Hotline:

NBC's Lauer noted on the "Today" show this a.m.: "For months now the White House has rejected claims that the situation in Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war. And, for the most part, news organizations like NBC have hesitated to characterize it as such. But after careful consideration, NBC News has decided a change in terminology is warranted -- that the situation in Iraq with armed militarized factions fighting for their own political agendas -- can now be characterized as a civil war" (11/27).

  ¶ 11:20 AM 3 comments

  Criminals
In this photo: The two people most responsible for the state of affairs in the middle east. Coincidentally, both of them made their fortunes in oil. Both of them blurred, or in fact erased, the lines between business and government in their home countries. And they seek each other out in their common time of need.

Gonna pull another fast one, Dick? Are you starting to realize that until we cut these guys off, their oil profits will continue to fund Al Qaeda and various other hostile groups? When you secretly wrote the energy bill that handed over greater profits to American oil firms for their Saudi drilling and refining operations, did you think about that?  ¶ 6:49 PM 0 comments

  NY Times Bashes the PS3 According to Seth Schiesel's review in the NY Times, the Sony PlayStation 3 basically sucks.  And Microsoft's Xbox 360, which came out a whole year earlier, is much better.  Schiesel's sees Sony's downfall:

And so it is a bit of a shock to realize that on the video game front Microsoft and Sony are moving in exactly the opposite directions one might expect given their roots. Microsoft, the prototypical PC company, has made the Xbox 360 into a powerful but intuitive, welcoming, people-friendly system. Sony's PlayStation 3, on the other hand, often feels like a brawny but somewhat recalcitrant specialized computer. (Sony is even telling users to wait for future software patches to fix some of the PS3's deficiencies.) The thing is, if people want to use a computer, they'll use a computer.

Through the decades of the Walkman and the Trinitron television, Sony was renowned as the global master of easy-to-use, seamlessly powerful consumer electronics. But recently Sony seems to have lost its way, first in digital music players, in which it ceded the ergonomic high ground to Apple's iPod, and now in home-game consoles. For now Sony's technologists seem to have won out over the people who study fun.

  ¶ 7:35 PM 2 comments

  Olbermann takes Bush to school Specifically, history class, where the lesson is Vietnam:

  ¶ 4:16 PM 1 comments

  Spam, origins of Ever wonder what would happen if you replied to a spam message? Read this:

I knew the origin of the call because I answered the spam with a special name I'd borrowed by one of my childhood baseball heroes, and entered a rarely used spare phone line as the call-back number. The caller rang this spare line, and asked for my hero.

The telemarketer could barely speak English. But when I expressed even the slightest interest in talking, he transferred me to a supervisor, after explaining that he was "new on the job."

When quizzed, the supervisor said she worked for a marketing association in the outskirts of Los Angeles. My caller ID showed the call originating in northern Virginia. But neither of those was accurate. The call actually came from Mumbai, India, I would later discover.

  ¶ 10:30 AM 1 comments

  A more progressive Iraq Wow, I was shocked when I read the news this morning: gay marriage legalized in Iraq. I guess freedom really is on the march:

  ¶ 9:28 AM 1 comments

  Historically bad Juan Cole:

AP says that Secretary of State Condi Rice asserted Saturday that Iraqis only have a future if they stay within a single state. She pointed to Vietnam's success in reforming its economy and making up with the United States and held it out as a model to Iraq.

Whaaat?

Rice surely knows that the way in which Vietnam achieved national unity was . . . for the radical forces to drive out the Americans, overthrow pro-American elements, and conquer the whole country. They only went in for this capitalism thing fairly recently. Rice, a Ph.D. and former Provost of Stanford University, shouldn't be saying silly things like that Iraq should emulate Vietnam. I guess if you hang around with W. long enough, you catch whatever it is that he has.

  ¶ 1:28 PM 0 comments

  Kevo is back! Kevo has returned.  After giving up on his promising career as a public school teacher in Brooklyn, Kevo persued the greener pastures of Philly, where he picks up his story :

I'm currently working part time as a basic skilz teacher at a mental health services agency in Philly. It's a place that inspires, teaches, and confuses me. One story explains how- Jim's story. [...]
I teach 3 classes and spend time at the agency three times a week. I arrive, and Jim is standing outside. We talk for a few minutes – his mood can be negative, middle-of-the-road, or some combination of both. He smiles sometimes. I don't mind talking, having a short conversation. That conversation always centers around him, and usually has to do with the number of people who asked: "How's program going today." He counts everything; the number of handshakes he's gotten, the number of times he's been blessed after sneezing, and the number of introductions he's been given are all important aspects of each day.

  ¶ 12:55 PM 1 comments

  Rubber band balls and the TSA This is totally weird. I suggest you read the whole story, but here's an excerpt:

The cop started in on me, and I finally said, "look, I'll give you the ball. I just want to get on my flight." The TSA guy ignored me, and kept asking me what was in the center of the ball. I kept telling him it was nothing but rubber bands. The TSA took it away again and x-rayed it again and said there was something metallic in the center. I kept denying it and denying any wrong doing. [...]

  ¶ 2:02 PM 0 comments

  Why the hell are they showing (game x)? If Sundays at your house are anything like mine, they usually involve some viewing of football (that of the North American incarnation).  Here in New York, Giants and Jets games reign supreme on the airwaves.  But usually, one of the two networks will show a second game, which often seems chosen at random.  As a New England Patriots fan, I often hope the "random" game will be the good 'ol Pats.  But it often isn't.  I've often wondered, is there any rhyme or reason to this?  Well, I don't have an answer, but check out these NFL TV distribution maps, which give a timeslot by timeslot breakdown of what games are seen where.  Very cool. 

Oh, and it looks like the New York area will again miss out on the Pats this weekend.
  ¶ 12:06 PM 1 comments

  Level-headed

New Rule: There's just something about a crew cut that says, "You can trust me." This is Montana's new senator, Jon Tester. I don't know much about him. And I don't need to. His hair says it all. "I'm friendly, I'm dependable, I'm literally level-headed." If hair could smile, it would look like this. And most importantly, it's hair that says, "You will never ever, ever, ever find me snorting meth with a gay hooker."
---Bill Maher  ¶ 9:46 AM 1 comments

  Iraq v. Vietnam Bush is going to Vietnam.  So, Iraq is the next Vietnam talk will be heard in the coming days.  I actually think it's a pretty valid comparison.  But there's more:

Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser, said a key difference is that the stakes are higher with Iraq.

"I remember a debate about what would happen if the United States left Vietnam and there were discussions about dominos, some which fell, some which didn't fall," he said of the view by some that other Southeast Asian states would fall, one by one, to communism if Vietnam was lost.

"But nobody, I think, felt that it would result in a clear and present danger to the territory of the United States," Hadley continued. "And I think one of the things that's different is I think most men and women in America believe that it is important that we not fail in Iraq, that the consequences of an Iraq that descended into chaos would be an Iraq that would be a safe haven for terrorists."

What most pisses me off about Hadley's comment is the idea that the United States cannot let any state fall into that level of disorder that it might be called a "safe haven for terrorists."  He then alludes that the territories of the United States were not threatened directly during the time of Vietnam, but that the stakes in Iraq are greater because this time, defeat could mean attacks on the Homeland.  He is wrong on all of this.

First of all, yes, Iraq could become this "safe haven."  It already is one.  There are plenty of regions of the world that, for better or worse, the collective World has let slip into that "failed state" status.   See: Somalia, Sudan.  In most cases, we have done nothing about it.  So why now, with Iraq, do we suddenly deem it necessary to spend our blood and treasure at (truly) insane rates? 

According to Mr. Hadley, it's because of what would happen in this failed state of Iraq: a spawning of Terrorist Laboritories, all filled with mad scientists working day and night to plan and execute Terror Attacks against the Homeland.  Surely, Mr. Hadley believes, the Attacks would be relentless.  Which, unlike Vietnam, of course (thinks Mr. Hadley), when no such threat on the Homeland existed.  September 11, 2001 was a psychological blow against the United States - it made us think, "It could end for me. Any moment. Any time."  No such psychological blow had struck the nation several years before the initiation of American involvement in Vietnam.  Oh. Wait. Mr. Hadley, what about a little something called THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS.  Think that that played into the minds of any Americans as they saw their soldiers battling those damn commies that had attacked in Korea and (almost) in Cuba.  But what happened?  Eventually, more and more people started realizing the whole thing was bullshit, that there was no way American involvement was helping anything get resolved. And they got mad.  Eventually, they held people accountable.  And they threw some of the bums out.  They didn't get them all the first time, but they kept going.  And they continued on until every single one of them was no longer in power.

dedicated to Mr. Hadley and Joseph Lieberman (CFL-CT)
  ¶ 10:49 PM 0 comments

  Those Nutty Republicans! Man, those Republicans just can't help themselves!  Remember back in 2001, when then Senate Majority Leader (#1 position in the Senate) Trent Lott said the following about Segregationist Strom Thurmond?

I want to say this about my state: When Strom Thurmond ran for president, we voted for him. We're proud of it. And if the rest of the country had followed our lead, we wouldn't have had all these problems over all these years, either.

There was a national outcry and Lott was forced to resign.  Even W bashed him.

So what's he up to now?  Today, he was elected by his fellow Republican senators to become Senate Minority Whip, their #2 position.  They have apparently decided that they need to play to their Segregationist base again.  To clarify: I am not joking.  Here's more.

So, what's next?  Secession?
  ¶ 11:21 AM 0 comments

  You are Richie Rich (relatively speaking, of course) Check out the global rich list to get some perspective on where your income ranks against the rest of the world.  Seriously, this is really cool.  And if you're reading this blog, chances are you are pretty high up there. 
  ¶ 3:03 PM 1 comments

  Famous Bowls to Remain Trans-Fatty In two previous posts, (1 and 2) I have discussed the KFC Famous Bowl and KFC's pledge to eliminate trans fats from its menu.  I wondered if the pledge to eliminate the trans fats would spell the demise of the Famous Bowl.  But, no!  The Famous Bowl will live on :

But KFC said some products -- among them chicken pot pie, biscuits, mashed potatoes with gravy and "Famous Bowls" -- will continue to contain trans fat.

"KFC is committed to continuing to improve the nutritional quality of these items," the company's news release said, without explaining why those foods won't be trans fat-free.

  ¶ 5:09 PM 0 comments

  Boy Moron Political Wire:

The most surprising thing about last week's elections was that the conventional wisdom -- as set by the polls and political analysts -- was right on target. Even the exit polls were accurate. However, Karl Rove really thought the pollsters had it wrong.

"Two weeks before the elections, Rove showed Newsweek his magic numbers: a series of graphs and bar charts that tallied early voting and voter outreach. Both were running far higher than in 2004. In fact, Rove thought the polls were obsolete because they relied on home telephones in an age of do-not-call lists and cell phones. Based on his models, he forecast a loss of 12 to 14 seats in the House -- enough to hang on to the majority. Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists -- to study just how wrong the polls were."

  ¶ 4:57 PM 0 comments

  The Week in Review "Twenty-three years ago two men shook hands [on screen: an '83 photo of Donald Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein]. No one then could have guessed how closely their fates would be intertwined, or that this week would be kind of a crappy week for both of them. Just days after Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death, Donald Rumsfeld was dealt an even crueler punishment -- irrelevance." --Jon Stewart

Irony always strikes when you least expect it, of course. A week ago, the conventional wisdom was that Saddam's conviction would bolster the Bush administration, and their boy Donnie, in the run up to the elections. Today, we see it for what it is, something whose primary effect has been to further radicalize the Sunni minority in Iraq. And the once mighty Rumsfeld has had his metaphorical throat slit, Bush's sacrifice to the deity that is the Democratic takeover of Congress.

"And don't think you're off the hook, voters, you're the ones who made this bed. Now you're the ones who are going to have to move over so a gay couple can sleep in it. Tomorrow you're all going to wake up in a brave new world, a world where the Constitution gets trampled by an army of terrorist clones, created in a stem-cell research lab run by homosexual doctors who sterilize their instruments over burning American flags. Where tax-and-spend Democrats take all your hard-earned money and use it to buy electric cars for National Public Radio, and teach evolution to illegal immigrants. Oh, and everybody's high! You know what, I've had it! You people don't deserve a Republican majority. I quit." --Stephen Colbert

I appreciate Colbert setting the bar unrealistically high for us Democrats. If we do not acheive what he has outlined above, how will we be viewed by the rest of America? Only time will tell.  ¶ 6:12 PM 1 comments

  This Morning, The Girl For those of you craving a change of pace from all of the politics this week, I present to you something totally apolitical: a short story/multimedia piece by a friend of mine, ZoeWo. Think of it as a children's book for artistic-minded adults, currently viewable via a series of images on Flickr. Click on the first image below to begin your reading of This Morning, The Girl:

Thanks to ZoeWo.  ¶ 9:19 PM 0 comments

  Cicero Jones Exclusive: The Bush/Pelosi lunch Cicero Jones received an exclusive inside look at Thursday's Bush/Pelosi lunch meeting. What follows is a nearly exact transcript. Enjoy.

Contrary to other media reports, the lunch was not held at the White House. Instead, Bush took Pelosi up on her offer to check out the newly redesigned House cafeteria, which was one of the first places on Capitol Hill to receive a Democratic makeover:

Pelosi greets Bush at the elevator bank down near the basement entrance the the cafeteria. He's a bit late.

Bush: Hola Nancita, what's up? Again, congratulaciones!
Pelosi: Thanks George. Actually, in Spanish the right way to say that is "felicitaciones"
Bush: Heh, heh, (twists mouth to one side) what, ok, let's get some grub. You know, this place is pretty nice, this Capitol complex here. I think Cheney comes here sometimes.
Pelosi: Well, I think you'll enjoy the new cafeteria we just put in.

They enter the cafeteria. Things are very new-looking, in line with those corporate cafeterias that have been designed to provide "healthy eating" options. Bush grabs a tray and begins to proceed down the line of different cafeteria offerings.

Pelosi: George, you should really try the vegan burger. It's delicious, our new chef, Rene Foucaud Soussain, spent a lot of time developing the recipe for the patty.
Bush: Nancita, I'm the decider. And I'm deciding I want some freedom fries. Heh. Freedom is on the march. Heh. Marchin' to my belly! Now where they got the freedom fries and cow burgers?
Pelosi: Um, George, that's kind of the point. You're not the decider anymore. I am. And I got rid of those. Don't you know anything about trans fats? We're making them illegal next week. Anyway, if you want something similar, get the pommes frites.
Bush: Heh, what? I don't read poems. Laura does. Heh (twists mouth again), this food sucks.
Pelosi: I think you would offend Monsieur Soussain with that remark, George. He spent a lot of time developing this menu and I must say, it's quite good and healthy.
Bush: Screw this. I'll just get a drink, grab some grub at mick-diddly-dees on the way home. Where do you keep that Coca-Cola, the American classic?
Pelosi: Again, George, we changed the menu. That stuff is just way too unhealthy. Too sugary. Have you ever seen what happens in the House when you give those freshmen representatives all the sugar they can drink? It makes it quite difficult to bring them to order. If you need caffeine, try the new espresso bar down near the registers. I would recommend the soy latte. It's delicious, and will provide you with those anti-oxidants you desperately need.
Bush: (looks at Nancy, puzzled) I told ya, Nancita, I didn't want to talk policy today, 'specially that environmental jib-jab. Listen, the oxygen's just fine. Leave it alone. Anyway, you get what you want and I'll just grab some pretzels.
Pelosi: Actually, George, we got rid of the pretzels too. Too dangerous, you know?
Bush: You gotta be kiddin' me. This sucks. I'm never eatin' here again. 'Fact, I'm not eatin' here today. Nancita, I'm all for bipartisanship, but not when the food sucks. Anyway, my stomach's a rumblin'. I gotta go get some good ol' 'merican grub. Feel free to join me. We can pick this up some other time.
Pelosi: Very well, George. I had hoped we might be able to start off on the right foot. I think the next two years are crucial to the safety and success of the American people. But if you can't find anything you want to eat, I understand.
Bush: Like I said, I'm gonna go get me a burger and a coke. You shoulda stayed the course with the old menu. Man, it sucks not bein' the decider.
Pelosi: Indeed, George. Talk to you soon.

Bush departs, in a huff. Pelosi proceeds to pay for her salad and soy latte and then takes a seat at a table with Barney Frank and Jerry Nadler, who are munching on some seaweed salad and edamame.

Special thanks to Cicero Jones French language/cuisine/culture expert, Etienne du Plus Petite Etat.  ¶ 10:09 AM 2 comments

  You no like the politics talking? Watch the first four minutes of Borat :

  ¶ 11:15 PM 0 comments

  The First Ever
Congratulations to Nancy Pelosi, the first ever...Italian-American to become speaker of the House.  ¶ 6:58 PM 2 comments

  Donald Rumsfeld, I will never forget you Today, George Bush acted upon the novel idea to fire Donald Rumsfeld. This comes, of course, after the Republicans got their asses handed to them in yesterday's elections. So let us take some time to remember the Don himself:



Some memorable quotes:

"I would not say that the future is necessarily less predictable than the past. I think the past was not predictable when it started."

"We do know of certain knowledge that he [Osama Bin Laden] is either in Afghanistan, or in some other country, or dead."

"Death has a tendency to encourage a depressing view of war."

"There's another way to phrase that and that is that the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. It is basically saying the same thing in a different way. Simply because you do not have evidence that something does exist does not mean that you have evidence that it doesn't exist." -on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction

"It is unknowable how long that conflict [the war in Iraq] will last. It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months." -in Feb. 2003

And how could you forget, the best. Rumsfeld. quote. ever:

"Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know."

Here's a known known for you, Donnie. You were the worst Secretary of Defense in the history of the Union.  ¶ 3:32 PM 3 comments

  Update from the DSCC Montana Vote Situation: Jon Tester leads Conrad Burns by approximately 1,700 votes (as of 11am EDT) and counting. In Silver Bow County (Butte), a Democratic stronghold, votes are still being counted but Tester is winning there with 66% of the vote. We expect to gain the majority of these uncounted votes and to add to Tester's margin.

Montana Process: When the counting phase is completed, a canvass will verify the vote tallies. That process could take as long as 48 hours, and must begin within three days and end within seven. Unless the canvass shows the margin to be within 1/4 of 1%, there is no recount. As the loser, Burns would have to request the recount. When the votes are all counted, we expect to be outside that recount margin.

Virginia Vote Situation: Jim Webb is up by approximately 8,000 votes and once the provisional ballots are counted, we expect Webb's margin to increase. (Please note that VA absentees were included in the tallies from last night.)

Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.   ¶ 12:10 PM 0 comments

  Happy V-B Day!

Victory over Bush. Great article on the toppling of the statue.  ¶ 8:58 AM 0 comments

  A few things are clear A major Democratic wave has swept the country. The wave was bigger than what most predicted.

Currently the Dems have captured 28 House seats. I predicted 27. Looks like we lost the race I worked on (Shays-Farrell) by about 4,000 votes, but will still net 2 seats out of Connecticut.

In the Senate, the bottom line is this thing isn't gonna be over for awhile. There will almost certainly be recounts in Virginia and Montana. Right now, Democrats are leading in both. That is extremely important as the person who leads going into a recount almost always wins. If we hold those two seats, we will take the Senate back and every single Senate race will have gone as Cicero Jones predicted. Man I'm good.

Well, I've slept about 4 hours and have a full day of work ahead of me. More later.  ¶ 7:03 AM 0 comments

  Cicero Jones 2006 Electoral Predictions: National I am going to stay away from the governorship races here, since in all honesty I don't know enough. Put here are my House and Senate predictions:

HOUSE (Currently 231 R - 202 D)

We need a 15 seat gain to get the majority. I predict a 27 seat gain for the Dems. That is a tad aggressive, many people are thinking about a 15-20 seat pickup, but ya gotta believe.

SENATE (Currently 55 R - 45 D)

We need 6 seats for the majority. This is going to be tough, and will be decided by the combined outcome of Senate races in: Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. All other states are not really in play.

OH-Sen: Put this one firmly in the Democratic column, with Sherrod Brown the new Democratic Senator from Ohio. The anti-free trade crowd wins big here (I am not in that crowd, but Sherrod Brown will be a great progressive voice).

RI-Sen: Lately this has started to look good for the Republicans again. However, RI is Democratic to the core, and I believe that carries the day here.

VA-Sen: Not in a million years would anyone have thought we had the chance to knockoff George Allen. Yet we will, with Jim Webb winning just barely.

TN-Sen: Harold Ford will come close, but this one stays Republican.

MO-Sen: Probably the single closest race in the country. I have no idea what will happen, and it will certainly all come down to turnout. My lack of knowledge leads me to go on a hunch: Claire McCaskill wins this for the Dems.

MT-Sen: You gotta love John Tester. Even if you are a Republican, I challenge you to go to his website and spend some time looking around. I believe you will then become a committed Tester fanatic. Yes, he is so badass that he lost several fingers in a farming mishap and has been quoted in the press as saying he does some of his best thinking on his tractor. And his crewcut speaks for itself. Tester will rock this vote, and rock the US Senate.

PA-Sen: My favorite race, outside of Connecticut, only because right-wing psycho Rick Santorum is going to get his assed kicked and hand this seat to the Dems. Take that one to the bank.

MD-Sen: This is the big wildcard. Currently, this is a Democratic seat and probably (along with a longshot in NJ) the Republicans' only chance of taking some ground back from the Dems. I worry about this a lot, it is really under the radar and could end up being a bad surprise. But, for now, gotta go with a Dem hold.

So yeah, there are the 6 seats that will make the Senate (barely) Democratic. Here's to hope.

Feel free to leave your own predictions! I'll be doing GOTV in CT all day tomorrow, so no updates til the night, hopefully from a victory party!

PS: Be careful, the NY Times says Democratic expectations of big gains are "overheated" -- this seems to be the conventional wisdom of the last 48 hours of the race.
  ¶ 12:52 AM 0 comments

  The Mud and the Muck The USS Intrepid aircraft carrier, home to a very good museum from its dock on the west side of Manhattan in the Hudson River, is set to undergo some renovations downriver in Bayonne, NJ.  Today it received some praise as it was about to set off for Bayonne:

"The Intrepid stands for everything we believe in ... our freedom and our values," Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said at the sendoff ceremony.

  ¶ 12:01 PM 0 comments

  Cicero Jones 2006 Electoral Predictions: Connecticut Ok, here goes.  Wanna know whose gonna win tomorrow?  Read on.  (Keep in mind I called 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2004).  Here I will focus on the races in Connecticut, which are very high-profile and quite important.  In later posts today I will address other races and make some general predictions. 

CT-Sen

Ned Lamont (D) vs. Joe Lieberman (CFL) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)

Well, Ned, you have fought the valiant fight.  Back in January, you were barely a blip on the radar screen of Joe Lieberman.  Joe assumed he would coast to reelection.  How could he not, after all?  He is the great Joe Lieberman, and anyone who opposes him must be a terrorist.  Before he had any idea what hit him, he was felled by an insurrection in the CT Democratic party, fueled by thousands of every day people who realized Lieberman no longer cared about Connecticut as he led the nation into the most ill-planned war in its history.

But Ned just can't catch a break.  After he won the primary, I was quite sure he would win in the general election.  After all, I assumed, Republican Schlesinger would surely pull 20-30% of the vote from right-wing Nutmeggers (Connecticut residents, for those not in the know). Ned would need no more than 41% or so to beat Joe.  However, the Republicans threw their lot in with Joe, and abandoned Schlesinger to the wolves (By the way, to you Republicans out there, this should tell you something about your party.  Your party is sacrificing everything it once stood for in the name of the Iraq Debacle.  Joe Lieberman is probably to the left of Lamont on some environmental and labor questions, but the Republican leadership is backing him just because of Iraq). Further compounding Ned's problems is a very weak Democratic ticket for the governorship.  Gov. Jodi Rell, a Republican less fascist than Dick Cheney, is wildly popular.  The Democratic candidate, John DeStefano, is polling less than Lamont and will not help him.

Getting to the point, the dynamic of the race is almost sure to result in a Lieberman victory.  The Great Hope of Lamont supporters like me is that Democratic turnout will exceed levels found in polling and that the majority of the undecideds break for Lamont.  However, there is an 80% chance that Lieberman takes this seat.  The bigger questions: What will happen with the rest of the Senate races, and how will this effect Lieberman's role in the Senate AND How has the Lamont campaign altered the political scene in Connecticut?  You can count on this blog trying to answer those questions in the weeks ahead.

CT-2, CT-4, CT-5 (House of Representatives)

Connecticut, one of the bluest states in the country, has 5 total representatives in the House, and only 2/5 are Democrats.  However, all three Republican-held seats are coming under heavy fire from the Democrats this year.  I spent some of this weekend working on behalf of Democratic challenger in CT-4, Diane Farrell.  The mood on the ground is strongly against the incumbent, Chris Shays.  The concerns on voters' minds: Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.  On this issue alone, Farrell will win.  I will be on the ground for this one tomorrow and will hopefully have some interesting stories to tell.

In CT-2, Joe Courtney is challenging Rep. Rob Simmons to represent all over eastern Connecticut.  Rob Simmons is a strong supporter of Bush in the Iraq issue, and will certainly pay for this at the polls.  The wildcard here is the perception that Simmons was a key player in saving the Groton sub base, which is a huge issue for voters here.  As with virtually all other close races, this one will come down to turnout, and Courtney probably will benefit from the Democratic ground game.  This one will also flip blue.

CT-5 probably offers the starkest choice of all of the Connecticut districts.  Republican Nancy Johnson has been in the House for a long time.  Her operation, in the western part of the state, runs like a well-calibrated machine.  She is facing a fiery young challenger in Chris Murphy, and must overcome the fact that her district is generally Democratic.  However, contrary to a lot of polling, I do not believe Murphy can pull this one off.  I have seen Johnson win too many close races and I believe her machine is too strong.  Therefore, this one states red.

In Sum: Connecticut will send two new, exciting Democratic representatives to Congress.  It will return two stale, old machine politicians (and Bush cheerleaders) in Joe Lieberman and Nancy Johnson.  Certainly not the ideal result, but a two seat pickup is something you have to be happy about.
  ¶ 10:22 AM 0 comments

  Curious George In Action How do you start your day?  Here is Andy Card, Chief of Staff, describing how Bush starts his:

MSNBC's Matthews: "Does he read the paper before he comes to work?"

Card: "He skims the newspaper. Laura read it, and sometimes Laura would read it to him or at least I could tell that she had ."

Matthews: "Did he ever come into work with a bad mood because Maureen Dowd dumped all over him again in the New York Times?"

Card: "He didn't really read Maureen Dowd, but I think Laura did, and sometimes -- the president did not dwell on the editorial page or the op-ed page of any of the newspapers. He did look at the sports page, he looked at the front page. He had a good sense of what was going on."

Matthews: "Horoscopes? Did he do the horoscopes?"

Card: "He didn't do the horoscopes."

Matthews: "How about the comics?"

Card: "Sometimes the comics, but, you know, he was really into the sports page."

  ¶ 8:52 AM 0 comments

  Do the Wave Charlie Cook:

For those who were not paying close attention to politics in 1994 or whose focus was on a single state or district, the concept of a 'wave election' is foreign and is radically different from the "all politics is local" elections of 1996-2004. For others whose sympathies lie with Republicans, it is difficult to deal with the possibility, or growing probability, of a profound rejection of their party -- that Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman could actually lose an election. For diehard Democrats, who are so used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, they are having a hard time seeing their party actually win a majority in the House for the first time in five elections.

The bottom line is that at this stage, Republicans should consider themselves lucky if their net losses stay in the 20-25 range in the House, four or five seats in the Senate, and between five and eight governorships. It would be a tough election, losing their majorities in the House and governorships, but it would fall short of the devastating losses that are possible. But the chances of this thing going bigger -- far bigger -- still exist, and there are quite a few veteran Republican strategists, people who have done tons of races in all kinds of states and districts for many years, who are bracing themselves for that distinct possibility.

  ¶ 10:51 AM 0 comments

  Let's let him play Investment Advisor This really remarkable:

Mike and Maria Schneider are an L.A. couple who run a blog called Franklin Avenue, which is more or less a cultural guide for local Grups. Over the past year Mike and Maria have been asking their infant son Evan to pick the winners in various political races and sporting events. Their method is simple—they just lay out two paper plates before him, write the names of various choices on each plate, and ask him to choose one, seemingly at random.

Weirdly enough, Evan has proven to be some sorta pocket-sized Nostradamus. He picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl, Crash to win Best Picture, Florida to win the NCAA hoops tournament, and overall went undefeated, at 9-0, before the start of the 2006 World Series. That's when baby Evan pondered two paper plates laid before him and chose the St. Louis Cardinals to win their first world title in 24 years (you can see the video here).

I don't have any time to look into this further, but it sounds pretty amazing.
  ¶ 1:30 PM 1 comments

  I doubt he won "best costume" A 16 year old in Brooklyn dressed as Hitler.  But he says it wasn't about the genocide.  No, according to his stepdad, "He was doing it in the spirit of Monty Python and Mel Brooks."  Oh, right, I forgot Hitler was so into satire.  And the stepdad lost some relatives in the Holocaust.  And of course the NY Post loves this, tossing out the "Heil o'ween" headline.
  ¶ 9:44 AM 0 comments