06 November 2006
Cicero Jones 2006 Electoral Predictions: Connecticut
Ok, here goes. Wanna know whose gonna win tomorrow? Read on. (Keep in mind I called 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2004). Here I will focus on the races in Connecticut, which are very high-profile and quite important. In later posts today I will address other races and make some general predictions.
CT-Sen
Ned Lamont (D) vs. Joe Lieberman (CFL) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)
Well, Ned, you have fought the valiant fight. Back in January, you were barely a blip on the radar screen of Joe Lieberman. Joe assumed he would coast to reelection. How could he not, after all? He is the great Joe Lieberman, and anyone who opposes him must be a terrorist. Before he had any idea what hit him, he was felled by an insurrection in the CT Democratic party, fueled by thousands of every day people who realized Lieberman no longer cared about Connecticut as he led the nation into the most ill-planned war in its history.
But Ned just can't catch a break. After he won the primary, I was quite sure he would win in the general election. After all, I assumed, Republican Schlesinger would surely pull 20-30% of the vote from right-wing Nutmeggers (Connecticut residents, for those not in the know). Ned would need no more than 41% or so to beat Joe. However, the Republicans threw their lot in with Joe, and abandoned Schlesinger to the wolves (By the way, to you Republicans out there, this should tell you something about your party. Your party is sacrificing everything it once stood for in the name of the Iraq Debacle. Joe Lieberman is probably to the left of Lamont on some environmental and labor questions, but the Republican leadership is backing him just because of Iraq). Further compounding Ned's problems is a very weak Democratic ticket for the governorship. Gov. Jodi Rell, a Republican less fascist than Dick Cheney, is wildly popular. The Democratic candidate, John DeStefano, is polling less than Lamont and will not help him.
Getting to the point, the dynamic of the race is almost sure to result in a Lieberman victory. The Great Hope of Lamont supporters like me is that Democratic turnout will exceed levels found in polling and that the majority of the undecideds break for Lamont. However, there is an 80% chance that Lieberman takes this seat. The bigger questions: What will happen with the rest of the Senate races, and how will this effect Lieberman's role in the Senate AND How has the Lamont campaign altered the political scene in Connecticut? You can count on this blog trying to answer those questions in the weeks ahead.
CT-2, CT-4, CT-5 (House of Representatives)
Connecticut, one of the bluest states in the country, has 5 total representatives in the House, and only 2/5 are Democrats. However, all three Republican-held seats are coming under heavy fire from the Democrats this year. I spent some of this weekend working on behalf of Democratic challenger in CT-4, Diane Farrell. The mood on the ground is strongly against the incumbent, Chris Shays. The concerns on voters' minds: Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. On this issue alone, Farrell will win. I will be on the ground for this one tomorrow and will hopefully have some interesting stories to tell.
In CT-2, Joe Courtney is challenging Rep. Rob Simmons to represent all over eastern Connecticut. Rob Simmons is a strong supporter of Bush in the Iraq issue, and will certainly pay for this at the polls. The wildcard here is the perception that Simmons was a key player in saving the Groton sub base, which is a huge issue for voters here. As with virtually all other close races, this one will come down to turnout, and Courtney probably will benefit from the Democratic ground game. This one will also flip blue.
CT-5 probably offers the starkest choice of all of the Connecticut districts. Republican Nancy Johnson has been in the House for a long time. Her operation, in the western part of the state, runs like a well-calibrated machine. She is facing a fiery young challenger in Chris Murphy, and must overcome the fact that her district is generally Democratic. However, contrary to a lot of polling, I do not believe Murphy can pull this one off. I have seen Johnson win too many close races and I believe her machine is too strong. Therefore, this one states red.
In Sum: Connecticut will send two new, exciting Democratic representatives to Congress. It will return two stale, old machine politicians (and Bush cheerleaders) in Joe Lieberman and Nancy Johnson. Certainly not the ideal result, but a two seat pickup is something you have to be happy about.
¶ 10:22 AM
CT-Sen
Ned Lamont (D) vs. Joe Lieberman (CFL) vs. Alan Schlesinger (R)
Well, Ned, you have fought the valiant fight. Back in January, you were barely a blip on the radar screen of Joe Lieberman. Joe assumed he would coast to reelection. How could he not, after all? He is the great Joe Lieberman, and anyone who opposes him must be a terrorist. Before he had any idea what hit him, he was felled by an insurrection in the CT Democratic party, fueled by thousands of every day people who realized Lieberman no longer cared about Connecticut as he led the nation into the most ill-planned war in its history.
But Ned just can't catch a break. After he won the primary, I was quite sure he would win in the general election. After all, I assumed, Republican Schlesinger would surely pull 20-30% of the vote from right-wing Nutmeggers (Connecticut residents, for those not in the know). Ned would need no more than 41% or so to beat Joe. However, the Republicans threw their lot in with Joe, and abandoned Schlesinger to the wolves (By the way, to you Republicans out there, this should tell you something about your party. Your party is sacrificing everything it once stood for in the name of the Iraq Debacle. Joe Lieberman is probably to the left of Lamont on some environmental and labor questions, but the Republican leadership is backing him just because of Iraq). Further compounding Ned's problems is a very weak Democratic ticket for the governorship. Gov. Jodi Rell, a Republican less fascist than Dick Cheney, is wildly popular. The Democratic candidate, John DeStefano, is polling less than Lamont and will not help him.
Getting to the point, the dynamic of the race is almost sure to result in a Lieberman victory. The Great Hope of Lamont supporters like me is that Democratic turnout will exceed levels found in polling and that the majority of the undecideds break for Lamont. However, there is an 80% chance that Lieberman takes this seat. The bigger questions: What will happen with the rest of the Senate races, and how will this effect Lieberman's role in the Senate AND How has the Lamont campaign altered the political scene in Connecticut? You can count on this blog trying to answer those questions in the weeks ahead.
CT-2, CT-4, CT-5 (House of Representatives)
Connecticut, one of the bluest states in the country, has 5 total representatives in the House, and only 2/5 are Democrats. However, all three Republican-held seats are coming under heavy fire from the Democrats this year. I spent some of this weekend working on behalf of Democratic challenger in CT-4, Diane Farrell. The mood on the ground is strongly against the incumbent, Chris Shays. The concerns on voters' minds: Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. On this issue alone, Farrell will win. I will be on the ground for this one tomorrow and will hopefully have some interesting stories to tell.
In CT-2, Joe Courtney is challenging Rep. Rob Simmons to represent all over eastern Connecticut. Rob Simmons is a strong supporter of Bush in the Iraq issue, and will certainly pay for this at the polls. The wildcard here is the perception that Simmons was a key player in saving the Groton sub base, which is a huge issue for voters here. As with virtually all other close races, this one will come down to turnout, and Courtney probably will benefit from the Democratic ground game. This one will also flip blue.
CT-5 probably offers the starkest choice of all of the Connecticut districts. Republican Nancy Johnson has been in the House for a long time. Her operation, in the western part of the state, runs like a well-calibrated machine. She is facing a fiery young challenger in Chris Murphy, and must overcome the fact that her district is generally Democratic. However, contrary to a lot of polling, I do not believe Murphy can pull this one off. I have seen Johnson win too many close races and I believe her machine is too strong. Therefore, this one states red.
In Sum: Connecticut will send two new, exciting Democratic representatives to Congress. It will return two stale, old machine politicians (and Bush cheerleaders) in Joe Lieberman and Nancy Johnson. Certainly not the ideal result, but a two seat pickup is something you have to be happy about.
¶ 10:22 AM
