07 November 2006
Cicero Jones 2006 Electoral Predictions: National
I am going to stay away from the governorship races here, since in all honesty I don't know enough. Put here are my House and Senate predictions:
HOUSE (Currently 231 R - 202 D)
We need a 15 seat gain to get the majority. I predict a 27 seat gain for the Dems. That is a tad aggressive, many people are thinking about a 15-20 seat pickup, but ya gotta believe.
SENATE (Currently 55 R - 45 D)
We need 6 seats for the majority. This is going to be tough, and will be decided by the combined outcome of Senate races in: Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. All other states are not really in play.
OH-Sen: Put this one firmly in the Democratic column, with Sherrod Brown the new Democratic Senator from Ohio. The anti-free trade crowd wins big here (I am not in that crowd, but Sherrod Brown will be a great progressive voice).
RI-Sen: Lately this has started to look good for the Republicans again. However, RI is Democratic to the core, and I believe that carries the day here.
VA-Sen: Not in a million years would anyone have thought we had the chance to knockoff George Allen. Yet we will, with Jim Webb winning just barely.
TN-Sen: Harold Ford will come close, but this one stays Republican.
MO-Sen: Probably the single closest race in the country. I have no idea what will happen, and it will certainly all come down to turnout. My lack of knowledge leads me to go on a hunch: Claire McCaskill wins this for the Dems.
MT-Sen: You gotta love John Tester. Even if you are a Republican, I challenge you to go to his website and spend some time looking around. I believe you will then become a committed Tester fanatic. Yes, he is so badass that he lost several fingers in a farming mishap and has been quoted in the press as saying he does some of his best thinking on his tractor. And his crewcut speaks for itself. Tester will rock this vote, and rock the US Senate.
PA-Sen: My favorite race, outside of Connecticut, only because right-wing psycho Rick Santorum is going to get his assed kicked and hand this seat to the Dems. Take that one to the bank.
MD-Sen: This is the big wildcard. Currently, this is a Democratic seat and probably (along with a longshot in NJ) the Republicans' only chance of taking some ground back from the Dems. I worry about this a lot, it is really under the radar and could end up being a bad surprise. But, for now, gotta go with a Dem hold.
So yeah, there are the 6 seats that will make the Senate (barely) Democratic. Here's to hope.
Feel free to leave your own predictions! I'll be doing GOTV in CT all day tomorrow, so no updates til the night, hopefully from a victory party!
PS: Be careful, the NY Times says Democratic expectations of big gains are "overheated" -- this seems to be the conventional wisdom of the last 48 hours of the race.
¶ 12:52 AM
HOUSE (Currently 231 R - 202 D)
We need a 15 seat gain to get the majority. I predict a 27 seat gain for the Dems. That is a tad aggressive, many people are thinking about a 15-20 seat pickup, but ya gotta believe.
SENATE (Currently 55 R - 45 D)
We need 6 seats for the majority. This is going to be tough, and will be decided by the combined outcome of Senate races in: Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. All other states are not really in play.
OH-Sen: Put this one firmly in the Democratic column, with Sherrod Brown the new Democratic Senator from Ohio. The anti-free trade crowd wins big here (I am not in that crowd, but Sherrod Brown will be a great progressive voice).
RI-Sen: Lately this has started to look good for the Republicans again. However, RI is Democratic to the core, and I believe that carries the day here.
VA-Sen: Not in a million years would anyone have thought we had the chance to knockoff George Allen. Yet we will, with Jim Webb winning just barely.
TN-Sen: Harold Ford will come close, but this one stays Republican.
MO-Sen: Probably the single closest race in the country. I have no idea what will happen, and it will certainly all come down to turnout. My lack of knowledge leads me to go on a hunch: Claire McCaskill wins this for the Dems.
MT-Sen: You gotta love John Tester. Even if you are a Republican, I challenge you to go to his website and spend some time looking around. I believe you will then become a committed Tester fanatic. Yes, he is so badass that he lost several fingers in a farming mishap and has been quoted in the press as saying he does some of his best thinking on his tractor. And his crewcut speaks for itself. Tester will rock this vote, and rock the US Senate.
PA-Sen: My favorite race, outside of Connecticut, only because right-wing psycho Rick Santorum is going to get his assed kicked and hand this seat to the Dems. Take that one to the bank.
MD-Sen: This is the big wildcard. Currently, this is a Democratic seat and probably (along with a longshot in NJ) the Republicans' only chance of taking some ground back from the Dems. I worry about this a lot, it is really under the radar and could end up being a bad surprise. But, for now, gotta go with a Dem hold.
So yeah, there are the 6 seats that will make the Senate (barely) Democratic. Here's to hope.
Feel free to leave your own predictions! I'll be doing GOTV in CT all day tomorrow, so no updates til the night, hopefully from a victory party!
PS: Be careful, the NY Times says Democratic expectations of big gains are "overheated" -- this seems to be the conventional wisdom of the last 48 hours of the race.
¶ 12:52 AM
