Let the president answer a higher anarchy
Strap him with an Ak-47, let him go, fight his own war
Let him impress daddy that wayNo more blood for oil, we got our own battles to fight on our own soil
No more psychological warfare, to trick us to thinking that we ain't loyal
If we don't serve our own country, we're patronizing a heroLook in his eyes its all lies
The stars and stripes, they've been swiped, washed out and wiped
And replaced with his own face, Mosh now or dieIf I get sniped tonight you know why,
Cause I told you to fight.

-Eminem's new song, "Mosh"

So, Eminem, formerly (perhaps still) a close-minded bigot, is speaking to the Youth. And he's saying some smart stuff. He doesn't seem to like Bush too much, either. The blogs are getting behind this one and getting it onto TRL. I should ask my little sister if she's heard of it.


  ¶ 10:58 AM 0 comments

    ¶ 3:33 PM 0 comments

  The Big Dog comes out for Johnny Boy Today in Philadelphia, a slimmed-down and victory-hungry Bill Clinton introduced John Kerry to what all accounts attest was an awesome crowd.

So begins the endgame.

Take 2 out of 3 and you (probably) win: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida

The other 3 to watch: Gore states Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico. Losing one of these spells trouble for John Kerry, and Bush could be ahead in all three.

Bush wins Florida, NM, and Wisconsin, Kerry takes Ohio, Iowa, and Penn -- 269 - 269

But, it's more than all of that math, as Craig Crawford notes. People want change. Bush is below the magic 50 % everywhere. Record numbers will turn out. This is John Kerry's race.
  ¶ 11:14 AM 0 comments

  Brent Scowcroft speaks the truth It seems Brent Scowcroft agrees with John Kerry:

Can we win the war on terrorism? Yes, I think we can, in the sense that we can win the war on organized crime. There is going to be no peace treaty on the battleship Missouri in the war on terrorism, but we can break its back so that it is only a horrible nuisance and not a paralyzing influence on our societies.

Say whatever you want about Brent Scowcroft and his service as George Bush I's national security advisor. But he's been right about plenty of things, including opposing the war in Iraq:

But the central point is that any campaign against Iraq, whatever the strategy, cost and risks, is certain to divert us for some indefinite period from our war on terrorism. Worse, there is a virtual consensus in the world against an attack on Iraq at this time. So long as that sentiment persists, it would require the U.S. to pursue a virtual go-it-alone strategy against Iraq, making any military operations correspondingly more difficult and expensive. The most serious cost, however, would be to the war on terrorism. Ignoring that clear sentiment would result in a serious degradation in international cooperation with us against terrorism. And make no mistake, we simply cannot win that war without enthusiastic international cooperation especially on intelligence.

He wrote that in August of 2002. Instead of listening to an experienced, level-headed national security expert like Scowcroft (not to mention good buddy of Papa Bush), Bush continued to live in the fantasy world created for him by the neo-con zealots like Wolfowitz.

Scowcroft in a Kerry administration? Seems like they have a pretty similar worldview.

  ¶ 10:35 AM 0 comments

  Sullivan for Connecticut The Day of New London has come out with a great profile of Jim Sullivan, candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from eastern Connecticut.
We absolutely need him to win this election.

His profile in the blogosphere has been low, which is very unfortunate, because I think it's the single best pickup opportunity for Democrats this election. Read my endorsement below. The race is a dead-heat with a WEAK incumbent. See: OurCongress.org :: CT-02: Simmons, Sullivan "in a dog fight"

Jim Sullivan will be a wise voice in Washington. In recent years, many bad decisions have been made by members of both parties in Congress. Because of their control of all three branches of federal government, the Republicans ought to shoulder the majority of the blame. Democrats, however, have been too timid in their fight to get this country back on the right track.
In his time in Washington, Rob Simmons has proven he lacks any real vision for his country and his district. A supposed moderate, Simmons has been a blind follower as Bush has crippled the economy with a wreckless tax-cut and spend package that has dumped billions of borrowed dollars into an Iraqi quamire, where dubiously pro-government Iraqi trainees are being issued Kevlar body armor, leaving some of our own troops without it and our own police with fewer resources for our public security. Rob Simmons has continued to nod his head and give his thumbs up as Bush has lead us astray, fighting a warror on imagined ghosts of conflicts past instead of a true war on Islamic fundamentalist terror. Eastern Connecticut has no true representative in Washington.

Jim Sullivan has not been tainted by the fantastic group-think of Tom Delay and John Ashcroft's government. He has been a leader in the region going back to even his college days and was elected to the Norwich City Council at a seemingly imposible 23 years of age. As a financial planner he enjoyed great success in helping Connecticut's families plan for college and retirement in an uncertain future.

Victory for Jim Sullivan will be part of a great renewal within the Democratic party nationally. If you are disatisfied with the Democrats for not doing enough in D.C., you are not alone. There are Democrats who have served alongside Rob Simmons in the Congress who are equally guilty of looking the other way as Bush has put America on the wrong track. Jim Sullivan has stood up against the wreckless tax policy, the failed war in Iraq, and the disastrous weakening of Medicare. He is part of a rising group of wise young leaders who will get America back on the right track. Win Kerry or win Bush, it will be the same: a victorious Jim Sullivan will work tirelessly to make his positive, progressive vision for Connecticut's second congressional district a reality.

With money, Sullivan can win.
  ¶ 8:44 PM 0 comments

  Wow. President Kerry. Really. I've been saying all along that Kerry will be the next president. Admittedly, this comes more out of my belief that these things are decided at the water cooler. The more you push your confidence in your guy, the better he'll do.

But now, even the most skeptical Republican will tell you that the most optimistic assessment of Bush's standing in the race is: 50-50. A 50% chance of losing the presidency. And so, we have a great fight ahead:

We do, but Kerry will win. Bush's job approval ratings are consistently below 50%. The final pre-election jobs report is out, and it's far short of even already-lowered expectations. Essentially, that drastically lessens the ability of the already truth-impaired Bush administration to establish any sort of effective rhythm with a "the economy is heating up, jobs are on the way" pounding. Those undecided and weak leaners in the polls often give a sort of "soft support" to Bush in polls, in that they disapprove of the overall job he's doing (because of the fact that the economy is sluggish and Iraq is set to slow-burn for a decade) but "favor" him to lead the war on terror (tough-talking cowboy is the best option when fighting outlaws). They wanted something else but were fuzzy on Kerry's identity.

Until the debates. In the first debate, it's now accepted as common knowledge that Kerry mopped the floor with Bush. The second debate is being pushed as a "draw" but the point is that Kerry has now shown he can out-president the President. Kerry has been living up to the "he's a great closer" hype. Don't count on that to do anything but accelerate.

The ripples can be seen in the polls already, but the sea-change is on the way. Kerry will put the final nail in Bush's coffin during Wednesday's debate. But that won't really be the end for Bush. His base support, especially in very red states, will continue to strengthen in the final weeks, as is natural when two sides reach the climax of a great struggle. That will show a continued neck-and-neck polling picture. However, the undecideds will start to decide, and will break 60%-70% for Kerry. And come Nov. 2, John Kerry will take Ohio, and with Ohio, will become the next president of the United States of America.
  ¶ 1:54 PM 0 comments

  Blogging the debate "He's such a dork"

I'm taking shit from my friends for blogging the debate.

Kevin says: "Post it all"


  ¶ 9:47 PM 0 comments

  Meta-Analysis of State Polls I don't know much about this professor, Sam Wang of Princeton, but his Meta-Analysis of State Polls is a hardcore statistical look at where the race is. He has Kerry up right now, narrowly winning. The trend lines, as people often allude to, are key. No surprises that both candidates are hovering around 270 EV, as things are truly even now. I will be checking this page often over the next few weeks, I have a feeling it will be one of the best predictors. Sure, polling is often bad, but trend lines can't lie.  ¶ 10:33 AM 0 comments

  out of touch with reality Sure, Bush has an almost superhuman ability to feel no remorse and admit no mistake. So when Charles Duelfer's report came out yesterday, it was no suprise that Bush said it didn't change his view that going into Iraq was absolutely necessary. But this is too much.

  ¶ 4:17 PM 0 comments

  The Stretch Run Four weeks to election day. What is left to say?

A few observations:

Turnout, turnout, tournout: this is the key, boys and girls, and we've known it all along. Volunteer: Travel to a Targeted State

This is nothing new, but a lot of thought has gone in lately to talking about the "Kerry should play to his base" vs. "Kerry should play to swing voters" argument. We see this every election. Bob Shrum aka Mr. Populist, one of Kerry's advisors who has recently been marginalized, believes that the road to victory is the "People vs. the Powerful" argument. I don't buy this.

John Kerry needs simply to do more of what he did in Debate #1: look like a president, talk like a president, out-president the President. The issues really aren't that important, per se, but he has to take some concrete stands. Forget Iraq, for now.

• Hammer on the homeland security question: inspect all containers coming into our ports. Inspect ALL containers coming into OUR ports. INSPECT ALL CONTAINERS COMING INTO OUR PORTS! This is how a nuclear device will be delivered to North America. Screw missile defense. Invest all of those funds in our ports, immediately. If necessary, get dirty with a final week "daisy" ad that shows a nuke coming into our ports, left woefully un-protected by George Bush, who cares more about police on the streets of Samarra than he does about protecting (swing state) harbors. (Miami, anyone?)
• Per George Lakoff, use these final four weeks to frame, frame, frame. Don't play the Republican game of phrases like "tax relief" and certainly don't use "war on terror" when referring to what we're doing/not doing in Iraq. "Tax reform" is good. As I pointed out above, "port security" is important. It suggests ports under Bush are insecure. Also, Kerry needs to be seen as the "nurturant parent" who isn't afraid to step in as the "strict father" that Lackoff talks about. Middle-aged white woman like this about Bush, but they're open to seeing Kerry prove himself a stronger, more protective, leader.
• Check out the ads produced by the New Democrat Network. If you understand Spanish or are just curious otherwise, check out their Hispanic Project, which is certainly what other dem groups should be doing -- making dramatic, well produced ads that target key constituencies. I absolutely love the fact that they're taking the fight to Miami with two aggressive ads targetting Cuban-American voters upset about Bush's new travel restrictions that bar families from visiting their relatives in Cuba any more frequently than every THREE years. In a state as close as Florida, this could make all the difference.
• As I mentioned up top, turnout. There are lots of good signs that registration among core dem groups has surged. Getting these people to the polls is key. In fact, getting anyone to the polls is key, as the higher the turnout, the betters dems fare, every single time.

  ¶ 10:26 AM 0 comments