Turnout, turnout, tournout: this is the key, boys and girls, and we've known it all along. Volunteer: Travel to a Targeted State

This is nothing new, but a lot of thought has gone in lately to talking about the "Kerry should play to his base" vs. "Kerry should play to swing voters" argument. We see this every election. Bob Shrum aka Mr. Populist, one of Kerry's advisors who has recently been marginalized, believes that the road to victory is the "People vs. the Powerful" argument. I don't buy this.

John Kerry needs simply to do more of what he did in Debate #1: look like a president, talk like a president, out-president the President. The issues really aren't that important, per se, but he has to take some concrete stands. Forget Iraq, for now.

• Hammer on the homeland security question: inspect all containers coming into our ports. Inspect ALL containers coming into OUR ports. INSPECT ALL CONTAINERS COMING INTO OUR PORTS! This is how a nuclear device will be delivered to North America. Screw missile defense. Invest all of those funds in our ports, immediately. If necessary, get dirty with a final week "daisy" ad that shows a nuke coming into our ports, left woefully un-protected by George Bush, who cares more about police on the streets of Samarra than he does about protecting (swing state) harbors. (Miami, anyone?)
• Per George Lakoff, use these final four weeks to frame, frame, frame. Don't play the Republican game of phrases like "tax relief" and certainly don't use "war on terror" when referring to what we're doing/not doing in Iraq. "Tax reform" is good. As I pointed out above, "port security" is important. It suggests ports under Bush are insecure. Also, Kerry needs to be seen as the "nurturant parent" who isn't afraid to step in as the "strict father" that Lackoff talks about. Middle-aged white woman like this about Bush, but they're open to seeing Kerry prove himself a stronger, more protective, leader.
• Check out the ads produced by the New Democrat Network. If you understand Spanish or are just curious otherwise, check out their Hispanic Project, which is certainly what other dem groups should be doing -- making dramatic, well produced ads that target key constituencies. I absolutely love the fact that they're taking the fight to Miami with two aggressive ads targetting Cuban-American voters upset about Bush's new travel restrictions that bar families from visiting their relatives in Cuba any more frequently than every THREE years. In a state as close as Florida, this could make all the difference.
• As I mentioned up top, turnout. There are lots of good signs that registration among core dem groups has surged. Getting these people to the polls is key. In fact, getting anyone to the polls is key, as the higher the turnout, the betters dems fare, every single time.

¶ 10:26 AM