10 October 2004
Wow. President Kerry. Really.
I've been saying all along that Kerry will be the next president. Admittedly, this comes more out of my belief that these things are decided at the water cooler. The more you push your confidence in your guy, the better he'll do.
But now, even the most skeptical Republican will tell you that the most optimistic assessment of Bush's standing in the race is: 50-50. A 50% chance of losing the presidency. And so, we have a great fight ahead:
We do, but Kerry will win. Bush's job approval ratings are consistently below 50%. The final pre-election jobs report is out, and it's far short of even already-lowered expectations. Essentially, that drastically lessens the ability of the already truth-impaired Bush administration to establish any sort of effective rhythm with a "the economy is heating up, jobs are on the way" pounding. Those undecided and weak leaners in the polls often give a sort of "soft support" to Bush in polls, in that they disapprove of the overall job he's doing (because of the fact that the economy is sluggish and Iraq is set to slow-burn for a decade) but "favor" him to lead the war on terror (tough-talking cowboy is the best option when fighting outlaws). They wanted something else but were fuzzy on Kerry's identity.
Until the debates. In the first debate, it's now accepted as common knowledge that Kerry mopped the floor with Bush. The second debate is being pushed as a "draw" but the point is that Kerry has now shown he can out-president the President. Kerry has been living up to the "he's a great closer" hype. Don't count on that to do anything but accelerate.
The ripples can be seen in the polls already, but the sea-change is on the way. Kerry will put the final nail in Bush's coffin during Wednesday's debate. But that won't really be the end for Bush. His base support, especially in very red states, will continue to strengthen in the final weeks, as is natural when two sides reach the climax of a great struggle. That will show a continued neck-and-neck polling picture. However, the undecideds will start to decide, and will break 60%-70% for Kerry. And come Nov. 2, John Kerry will take Ohio, and with Ohio, will become the next president of the United States of America.
¶ 1:54 PM
But now, even the most skeptical Republican will tell you that the most optimistic assessment of Bush's standing in the race is: 50-50. A 50% chance of losing the presidency. And so, we have a great fight ahead:
We do, but Kerry will win. Bush's job approval ratings are consistently below 50%. The final pre-election jobs report is out, and it's far short of even already-lowered expectations. Essentially, that drastically lessens the ability of the already truth-impaired Bush administration to establish any sort of effective rhythm with a "the economy is heating up, jobs are on the way" pounding. Those undecided and weak leaners in the polls often give a sort of "soft support" to Bush in polls, in that they disapprove of the overall job he's doing (because of the fact that the economy is sluggish and Iraq is set to slow-burn for a decade) but "favor" him to lead the war on terror (tough-talking cowboy is the best option when fighting outlaws). They wanted something else but were fuzzy on Kerry's identity.
Until the debates. In the first debate, it's now accepted as common knowledge that Kerry mopped the floor with Bush. The second debate is being pushed as a "draw" but the point is that Kerry has now shown he can out-president the President. Kerry has been living up to the "he's a great closer" hype. Don't count on that to do anything but accelerate.
The ripples can be seen in the polls already, but the sea-change is on the way. Kerry will put the final nail in Bush's coffin during Wednesday's debate. But that won't really be the end for Bush. His base support, especially in very red states, will continue to strengthen in the final weeks, as is natural when two sides reach the climax of a great struggle. That will show a continued neck-and-neck polling picture. However, the undecideds will start to decide, and will break 60%-70% for Kerry. And come Nov. 2, John Kerry will take Ohio, and with Ohio, will become the next president of the United States of America.
¶ 1:54 PM
