Meta-Analysis of State Polls
I don't know much about this professor, Sam Wang of Princeton, but his
Meta-Analysis of State Polls is a hardcore statistical look at where the race is. He has Kerry up right now, narrowly winning. The trend lines, as people often allude to, are key. No surprises that both candidates are hovering around 270 EV, as things are truly even now. I will be checking this page often over the next few weeks, I have a feeling it will be one of the best predictors. Sure, polling is often bad, but trend lines can't lie.