29 July 2006
Thoughts on Lamont/Lieberman
With just 10 days left until the Democratic primary, the Lamont/Lieberman race is at full throttle. And because I haven't written much on it lately, I'll do so now.
First of all, let's put this in perspective. Joe Lieberman hasn't faced a competitive Senate race since he knocked off Lowell Weicker 18 years ago to take the seat as the junior Senator from Connecticut. 18 years is a long time. Back this past December, I wrote about the possibility of Lowell Weicker challenging Lieberman in the general election as an independent, anti-war candidate. Back then, Ned Lamont was just a entrepreneur with a political streak who was also looking to support Weicker (or anyone else) who wanted to step up to the plate and challenge Lieberman. Of course, though we all hoped someone might actually be able to give Lieberman a run for his money, the point was more the "protest" of it all. Contest the race, make Joe sweat a bit, and maybe, just maybe, get him to become less of a Bush lap dog.
So, Ned Lamont jumped into the race. Lieberman blew him off at first, staying in Washington (I'm sure there were a few White House sleepovers in there) and worrying about issues like restricting children's access to violent video games. What did Ned Lamont do? Though the TV cameras and the Hartford Courant weren't watching like they are now, he went around to some of the smallest, most out-of-the-way towns in Connecticut (for such a small state, it's amazing that it has 169 towns). Places that Joe Lieberman hadn't visited for almost two decades, if ever. Ned sat down and talked with the Democratic Town Committees. Just like a CEO running a successful business (which Ned has obviously done) he took the pulse of the market. He listened, he learned, and, most importantly, he connected with the true grass-roots of the Connecticut Democratic establishment. He worked day in and day out, fundraising up a storm and learning the backwoods of Connecticut better than he probably ever thought he would.
[For more on how it all went down: check out this awesome New York Magazine profile of the race - a must read for anyone with either a passing interest in Connecticut politics or a love of the classic David vs. Goliath story.]
And that pretty much brings us to today. Those polls that once showed Lamont earning 10% of the vote? Well, now they show him up 51% to 41% over Lieberman. The thing that really makes it all hit home for me: Joe Lieberman, former Vice Presidential candidate, one of the most well-known politicians in the United States, had to enlist the help of perhaps modern American politics' biggest Rock Star, William Jefferson Clinton, to help him win a PRIMARY race over a guy whose previous biggest claim to fame was starting a cable company that wired college dorms. Not to take anything away from Ned, because he is awesome, but just think about that for a second.
Things to watch over the next 10 days:
I will have more throughout the week. If you've read this far, then you deserve my prediction: Joe Lieberman wins the primary, but never comes close to enjoying the kind of political success he has in the past, and eventually retires a broken man. Harsh, but true.
For more: LamontBlog
¶ 8:01 AM
First of all, let's put this in perspective. Joe Lieberman hasn't faced a competitive Senate race since he knocked off Lowell Weicker 18 years ago to take the seat as the junior Senator from Connecticut. 18 years is a long time. Back this past December, I wrote about the possibility of Lowell Weicker challenging Lieberman in the general election as an independent, anti-war candidate. Back then, Ned Lamont was just a entrepreneur with a political streak who was also looking to support Weicker (or anyone else) who wanted to step up to the plate and challenge Lieberman. Of course, though we all hoped someone might actually be able to give Lieberman a run for his money, the point was more the "protest" of it all. Contest the race, make Joe sweat a bit, and maybe, just maybe, get him to become less of a Bush lap dog.
So, Ned Lamont jumped into the race. Lieberman blew him off at first, staying in Washington (I'm sure there were a few White House sleepovers in there) and worrying about issues like restricting children's access to violent video games. What did Ned Lamont do? Though the TV cameras and the Hartford Courant weren't watching like they are now, he went around to some of the smallest, most out-of-the-way towns in Connecticut (for such a small state, it's amazing that it has 169 towns). Places that Joe Lieberman hadn't visited for almost two decades, if ever. Ned sat down and talked with the Democratic Town Committees. Just like a CEO running a successful business (which Ned has obviously done) he took the pulse of the market. He listened, he learned, and, most importantly, he connected with the true grass-roots of the Connecticut Democratic establishment. He worked day in and day out, fundraising up a storm and learning the backwoods of Connecticut better than he probably ever thought he would.
[For more on how it all went down: check out this awesome New York Magazine profile of the race - a must read for anyone with either a passing interest in Connecticut politics or a love of the classic David vs. Goliath story.]
And that pretty much brings us to today. Those polls that once showed Lamont earning 10% of the vote? Well, now they show him up 51% to 41% over Lieberman. The thing that really makes it all hit home for me: Joe Lieberman, former Vice Presidential candidate, one of the most well-known politicians in the United States, had to enlist the help of perhaps modern American politics' biggest Rock Star, William Jefferson Clinton, to help him win a PRIMARY race over a guy whose previous biggest claim to fame was starting a cable company that wired college dorms. Not to take anything away from Ned, because he is awesome, but just think about that for a second.
Things to watch over the next 10 days:
- Volunteers from all over the country will descend upon Connecticut to work on this race. How will Connecticut Democrats respond to them? Howard Dean's crew in Iowa ended up turning Iowans off. I suspect Lamont will have more people on the ground (not counting the unions, which are for Lieberman).
- What will turnout be? Conventional wisdom says low turnout benefits Lamont, since his supporters are more dedicated. On a hot, sleepy Tuesday in August, a lot will be decided.
- If Lamont wins, what will happen to Lieberman? He has called in every favor in the book - particularly the Bill Clinton one - but Bill (along with the vast majority of Democrats) has pledged to support the winner of the primary in the general election. My guess: if he loses, the Democratic Party will lay on him heavily to withdraw his independent bid.
- Even if Lieberman pushes on with an independent "Connecticut for Lieberman" bid, political science says that he will be seen as a loser, and people don't like to vote for losers.
- If Lieberman wins, how does he patch things up with the Democratic base? The guy is so self-obsessed and self-important, that he might not even care (and will thus seal his fate for the next election in 6 years time).
- How many more mistakes will Lieberman make? Just yesterday, he printed these buttons entitled "The Hug", showing him alongside Bill Clinton, which was meant to counteract this amazingly funny and effective float, "The Kiss". (Go watch the video) However, Joe forgot the Golden Rule of Democratic political campaigns: make sure you get union-made buttons. Oops. But he's been making huge mistakes and mis-reads the whole time - one or two more could cost him the race.
I will have more throughout the week. If you've read this far, then you deserve my prediction: Joe Lieberman wins the primary, but never comes close to enjoying the kind of political success he has in the past, and eventually retires a broken man. Harsh, but true.
For more: LamontBlog
¶ 8:01 AM
