Fallujah The invasion of Fallujah has begun. 10,000 US Marines are set to move into a town that predator drones have now mapped extensively. 3,000 - 5,000 insurgents are believed to be waiting for them. They've had plenty of time to prepare -- the US elections were very helpful to their cause. Comparisons are being made to the last hardfought urban battle in the history of the Marines -- Hue city in Vietnam, during the Tet offensive.

What will happen? If this battle is decisive, we will win. The guerilla force will not be victorious in pitched (albeit urban) battle agains the US Marines. But if this battle is not decisive, if the insurgents melt away, that will certainly bode ill for our future in Iraq.

Ironically, higher casualty figures will be "better" news, only because it means real combat is happening, and we are winning. If CNN starts to say "resistance light" and "Marines sweep in and easily take control..." that says very bad things about our on-the-ground intel as well as our ability to force them to fight directly (instead of ambushing us on the highways).

I know the Marines will do a good job. I just hope they get the chance to finish it.
  ¶ 10:07 AM 0 comments

  Some bright spots It's tough to even ponder what the next four years will bring. As happened immediately post-election in 2000, people are talking about W "reaching out," and naming some Democrats to his cabinet, wanting to establish his legacy as one of a uniter, etc. That's not going to happen. Things look bad. But, some bright spots:

• Young voters turned out like never before, and they turned out overwhelmingly for Kerry. If only 18-29 year olds counted, Kerry would've won 375-163. He would've captured Alabama. Yes, Alabama. That can only bode well for the future of the Democratic party. They were the only age group that Kerry won.
• The DNC, along with groups like ACT, MoveOn, and Music for America, registered thousands of new voters. These voters have shifted many states from swing states to solid Democratic ones. Check out more on this here.
• Democracy for America had great success at the local level. As Howard Dean and others have pointed out, the Republicans began their revolution by taking back school boards, county judgeships, and state house seats. I find tremendous hope in the fact that Deborah Heinrich was elected the new representative from Madison and north Guilford to the Connecticut State House. Madison is my hometown. It has had a Republican representative for as long as I can remember. I don't think he was opposed for his last four or five elections. I met Deborah at the town 4th of July parade. I must admit, I was tremendously impressed with her, but assumed she did not have a chance.
  Well, she got an endorsment from DFA, campaigned harder than anyone has in Madison in a long time, and she won 53.1% of the vote. I cannot tell you how genuinely happy this makes me and how much she inspires me to get into politics myself. In addition to her win, Madison's district voted in Democrat Ed Meyer as its new CT state senator, throwing out a seven-term Republican.
• Barack Obama single-handedly (well, with the help of millions of supporters) destroyed the Illinois GOP. If W thinks he has a mandate with 51% of the vote, what does Obama get with over 70%? He will make a fine senator and will be an excellent party spokesman.
• Karl Rove's Great Conservative Coalition will be under tremendous pressure. Iraq, the deficit, and 55 million Kerry voters still are there for him to deal with. The dollar is crashing vis a vis the Euro. The business conservatives, religious conservatives, and neoconservatives all desperately want Bush to spend his political capital on them. What will he go for? Tax cuts? Deficit reduction? Gay marriage amendment? Hardcore anti-abortion justices? Massive homeland security spending? Four more wars? He can't have it all. And he might even have to admit he made some mistakes. And he can't count on the moderate Republican senators to help him every time. In fact, the majority of the Senate is pro-choice.

So, all in all, our disheartening defeat should be tempered by optimism about the future of our party. As the Republicans unravel, we can only rebuild. In 2006 we will win back some congressional and gubernatorial seats. And we will be that much closer to taking our country back.

  ¶ 1:37 PM 0 comments